Monday, February 4, 2008

USD/JPY going LONG

What you'll see on the daily/weekly chart for USD JPY is that its due for a retracement back up to the 108 levels. Due to recent interest rate reports and further credit fears, the dollar has taken quite a hit. You'de think that along with the NFP and the core spending reports, the dollar would tank down even more, but what you have to understand is that there is such a substantial amount of volume in shorting dollar over the past months that people are now finally starting to close out their positions and taking profit(buying back USD) . The volume of the pair itself has dropped over 40% in the past two weeks. Now that it looks like we will be sitting tight around 3% along with some debatably positive focus on the economic sector with tax rebates and what not floating in the atmosphere, we might see a the dollar going up quite a ways against the yen. You'll see that trendwise, based on the ADX/DMI system, the (+)DMI and (-)DMI are due for a intersection and a 100-150 pip upward transition is very easily obtainable.

Look to long with stops at 106.30(0.618 on fib retracement for daily chart) and limits anywhere from 107.90 to 108.69(1.00 - 1.618on fib retracement)

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